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Monday, December 29, 2008

Fw: Holidays at MoMA: Four of Six Highlights


I'd decided I wouldn't do these cheap posts where I simply forward an e-mail from my inbox..but this one seemed like it's worth posting.  The 4th of 6 "holiday highlights" e-mails that MoMA has sent.  

We sprung for a membership to MoMA in November, which might be the best $125 we've spent since coming to NYC.  I feel like we've already got our money's worth, with about 4 visits to the museum, plus a couple movies (both of which included the filmmaker speaking: Nina Paley taking questions after "Sita Sings the Blues"; and the man, the myth, the legend Melvin van Peebles introducing his very first feature film, The Story of Three Day Pass!)

We walked through the Miro exhibit featured below in November.  Actually, I walked through twice, once with Anj and then again with a friend who was in town visiting from SF--and who is an artist and counts Miro among his influences, so it was informative and eye-opening to walk through with him..

More on MoMA in the future--I had been thinking it would be fun to write up my own idiosyncratic guide to visiting MoMA..
 

----- Forwarded Message ----
From: The Museum of Modern Art <enews@moma.org>
To: Me
Sent: Monday, December 29, 2008 8:05:01 AM
Subject: Holidays at MoMA: Four of Six Highlights

This message contains graphics. If you do not see the graphics, click here to view.

MoMA.ORG   JOIN   VISIT   MoMASTORE.ORG

  

Above: Joan Miró. Rope and People, I (detail). 1935. Oil on cardboard mounted on wood, with coil of rope. MoMA. Gift of the Pierre Matisse Gallery. © 2008 Successió Miró/Artists Rights Society (ARS), New York/ADAGP, Paris

You are receiving this email because you are subscribed to The Museum of Modern Art's "This Month at MoMA" e-newsletter. If you would prefer not to receive the remaining "MoMA Holiday" emails, please click the "unsubscribe" link above.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

WSJ: "How Iceland Rattled the World"

Yesterday, at the tail end of a post about Ukraine, I wrote that I still didn't fully understand what happened in Iceland. Well, speak of the devil: today, the WSJ ran a long article (starting on A1, stretching across two pages inside) which broke it down pretty well:

DECEMBER 27, 2008
The Isle That Rattled the World:Tiny Iceland Created a Vast Bubble, Leaving Wreckage Everywhere When It Popped
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123032660060735767.html

I'll post some key excerpts later..but the short story is:
  • massive growth in the banking sector via leverage--via debt and deposits--but a lot of those liabilities were denominated in foreign currencies (e.g., loans from German banks, deposits from English individuals)
  • once the global deleveraging started over the summer, and banks around the world pulled back their credit, the Icelandic banks were unable to roll over their funding, esp as those sources of funding lost confidence in the Icelandic currency
  • this then led to a crisis of confidence among their deposit base...

Friday, December 26, 2008

What I'm Reading: Robert Caro, Jane Jacobs, James Grant, Robert Shiller, Paul Krugman, Niall Ferguson, Dostoyevsky


1) The Power Broker: started this over the summer, and was making good progress for a couple months.  But I've been picking it up only intermittently since Sept--still a few hundred pages to go.  I'm only getting to the post-war period now.  Amazing stuff--esp to be reading it while in NYC.

2) Death & Life of Great American Cities: figured it would be a good companion piece to (1).  But similar story: been picking it only intermittently.  Last time was Oct in Philly--when I had a good day walking to Franklin, Washington, and Rittenhouse Squares while re-reading that section of the book.

3) The Trouble With Prosperity: this one I also started over the summer..slowly been absorbing it, as Grant requires a couple read-throughs to really absorb. 

4) The Subprime Solution: got this one in Oct, and finally almost finished with it.  Essential.

5) The Age of Diminishing Expectations: this one I picked at from the public library, after reading all the buzz about his new one (an updated version of The Return of Depression Economics).  A great intro to the central issues of economics.

6) Empire: this one I just started yesterday.  I bought it as a gift for my father-in-law--borrowing that copy back to read it myself.  I've been meaning to read Ferguson for a while..

The odd thing is that I used to read much more fiction than non-fiction.  The only fiction I've got going now is:

7) The Brothers Karamazov: been bogged down in this since Sept..thanks to Krops!

thought/links about the financial crisis in Ukraine


A couple blog posts about the economic situation in Ukraine popped up recently. They naturally caught my eye, since I have a connection to the place. My sister is there now with her husband, visiting his family..and I visited there (Kyiv and Odessa) a few years ago.

A couple days ago, there was this on Dealbreaker, titled, with tongue firmly in cheek, "It's Better in Ukraine", which was really just a quote of an AP story from Kyiv:

One thing that we would really like to see more of here in the United States is protests over economic and market conditions. We aren't quite sure why Wall Street types don't take to well... Wall Street after a 400 point drop in the Dow and start blowing their horns in unison.

For our money, the Ukraine has got it figured out:

Thousands of car drivers in the Ukrainian capital angrily blew their horns for several minutes Monday, protesting what they call incompetent and corrupt government policies that led to a devastating financial crisis.

The Ukrainian currency has lost some 40 percent of its value since September as a fall in the export of steel, the heart of the economy, led to a shortage of foreign currency. That was coupled with a loss of confidence in the hryvna and the banking system.


"We've had enough of the authorities," said one protester, Ihor Ratushny.

Damn authorities.


More sobering was this post from Krugman's blog, titled "The Second Great Depression Has Arrived..", which posts a graph of recent Ukrainian monthly industrial output, and compares it with an index of US industrial production--from 1928 to 1933. Take a look:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/25/the-second-great-depression-has-arrived/

What has happened in Ukraine? I'm ashamed to say that I still don't really know/understand in detail; what I do know is that the country's fiscal sitation has been battered by the financial crisis, with the currency collapsing and the government seeking an IMF loan to stabilize the financial system. Somehow this is tied to the global deleveraging we're going through--but again, I don't know the details. The Dealbreaker item included above cites a drop in steel exports as the primary cause..but seems to me that the story is more complex than just that.

Here is a WP article from Oct headlined "Ukrain Seeks IMF Help to Weather Financial Crisis"...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/17/AR2008101702051.html

..but like it gives less ofe an explanation. It lists some of the problems--a crash in the Ukrainian stock markets, a fall in the value of the currency, a run on the banks, and mentions the steel thing--but doesn't explain how the global financial crisis came to Ukraine.

For that matter, I don't fully understand Iceland either...

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Paul Krugman interview from "Big Think" (video)

I've started following The Big Picture (Barry Ritholtz's blog), which posted this on Monday--the 1st of 10 short video segments of Paul Krugman speaking about the financial crisis and "the return of depression economics" (which is the title of a recently updated book of his:
http://www.amazon.com/Return-Depression-Economics-Crisis-2008/dp/0393071014).



(from http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/paul-krugman-on-the-return-of-depression-economics/)

Most of this 3min segment is about Japan in the 1990s--what Krugman says is the closest parallel to the United States today.

But at the end of the segment, as part of his response to "Why do you hope people read this book?", Krugman says:
I think it's a fascinating story, just aside from everything else. I'm horrified, I'm scared, but I'm also just professionally awed and fascinated by what's going on. Every macroeconomist, which is what I am--well, half of me is a macroeconomist--every macroeconomist sort of has a lingering desire to live through the early stages of the Great Depression, to know what it was like..and here we are."

Web 2.0 101: Using Twitter

I've been toying with the idea of a set of "101" series: hence the Stats 101 post I did previously (here; although it was more esoteric and less expository that I'd planned such 101 posts to be).  Also was thinking about: Math 101, Finance/Economics 101, maybe NYC 101.

And also Web 2.0 101.  So here's one on Twitter:

So what the hell is Twitter?  If you're on Facebook, think of it as status updates w/o the hassle of the rest of Facebook.  You still have "friends" of a sort (i.e., there is a social network framework), but on Twitter you "follow" others, and others can follow you*.

Beyond that, it works pretty much like FB status updates: you fill in a short message (famously, less that 140 characters), and that gets broadcast to your contacts (your followers, i.e., people who are following your Twitter feed)--it shows up on their Twitter home page (and also can get texted to their mobile device, if they're set up for that).

To get started: Go to https://twitter.com/signup and create an account.  Then post something.  And look around for people to follow (v
lick on "Follow" for any of the Twitter acconts listed below to follow them yourself..it's easy enough to undo later if you decide you don't want to follow them anymore.)

One advantage of stripping away all the other stuff that Facebook includes--the photos, personal details, etc--is that you can follow people you have no social relationship with..in fact, it may not be a person per se.  For example, I'm following the following:

http://twitter.com/astorwines (a wine store in Manhattan)
http://twitter.com/BrianLehrer (a local NPR talk show host)
http://twitter.com/freakonomics (a NYT blog)
http://twitter.com/CityRoom (ditto)
http://twitter.com/BarackObama (you know who that is)
http://twitter.com/upperplayground (an apparel store/art gallery in SF)

In addition, I am following about 20 or so actual individuals.  Most are friend "IRL" (in real life), but a couple are random twitter feeds I saw references to somewhere and added.  See my whole list of "following" here:
http://twitter.com/suman_ganguli/friends

And in the other direction, I currently have 24 followers:
http://twitter.com/suman_ganguli/followers

Finally, you can view my 106 updates ("tweets") here..about 100 of those since ~Nov 6, when I decided to give it a try:
http://twitter.com/suman_ganguli

I update from 3 sources:
1) from http://twitter.com
2) from my phone, via SMS (you set up your account with your mobile device #, then simply text the Twitter number, 40404)
3) my new new thing: when I want to post a link, I've started using http://bit.ly/ , a very web2.0-ish url shortener: bit.ly provides a shorted url, and I have my bit.ly account set up so that post the link and a message to my Twitter account right from there

Finally, I've installed the Twitter application on Facebook, so that any Twitter update I post also updates my Facebook status.

Seems Twitter is finding a lot of interesting applications--its affecting politics, media, marketing.  But all that will have to wait for a 2nd Twitter 101 (Twitter 102?) blog post.

*Regarding followers from being followed: to get a bit technical, you could say that the network relationship on Twitter is non-commutative, or is directional: just because I follow you, it does not mean that you're following me.  This is unlike friend relation in Facebook, where if you and I are friends, you get my status updates and I get yours.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Statistics 101: ARCH/GARCH


I had planned to finally post at least a part of the Obamanomics "annotated summary" (see here), but once again got caught up doing some other stuff.

At least today it was "productive" stuff: spent a bit of time looking at models of "heteroskedasitcity", i.e., time-varying volatility:

The standard models for heteroskedasticity are ARCH & GARCH, which are imposing acronyms:
ARCH = AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticy
GARCH = Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticy

Here is the wikipedia entry, though I don't think it's particularly good (heavy on the most general equations, light on intuition):

More useful for me was reading through Jorion's brief overview in

Ch 9 of the 3rd Edition (Ch 8 in the 2nd Edition which I have) is titled "Forecasting Risks and Correlations", with a subsection on "Modeling Time-Varying Risk", which has sub-subsections on "Moving Averages", "GARCH Estimation", Long-Horizon Forecasts with GARCH", and "The RiskMetrics Approach."

The latter refers to the firm RiskMetrics; the approach the Jorion generously attributes to them is an exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) method:

Here is a paper I found by searching for "GARCH" on the RiskMetrics website:
Exploring alternative 1-month volatility forecasting techniques

I should really be more familar with this stuff that I am, given that I took a course on financial econometrics.  I need to dig out those lecture notes..and the associated Matlab code.  We didn't have a good text for the course; ostensibly it was the infamous Campbel, Lo & MacKinlay:

Monday, December 22, 2008

Slumping South Carolina


Odd coincidence: over the weekend, I was on the Center for American Progress website (liberal/Democratic think tank, run by John Podesta--former chief of staff for Bill Clinton, and now helping run Obama's transition):

I had visited at least once before, when I was searching for intro material on carbon emission cap-and-trade.  Conveniently, they'd put together a Cap-and-Trade 101 document:

Looking through their econ stuff, I came across this interactive map showing unemployment rates state-by-state:

Not surprising that Michigan is top at 9.6%; somewhat surprising is that the next three were California, South Carolina (both at 8.4%) and Oregon (8.1%).  

And then today, Krugman had a blog post today titled "Southern Discomfort", linking to a NYT article from today's paper about Columbia, SC.  Writes Krugman (http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/22/southern-discomfort/):

Heartrending story in the Times about the woes of South Carolina. In fact, unemployment rates in the Southeast have risen more than in the United States as a whole; there's a sort of Slump Belt extending from the industrial Midwest down to the Carolinas.

Why is this happening? The Slump Belt does sort of look like the "auto corridor"; maybe what we're seeing is the geographical location of cyclically sensitive manufacturing industries. Anyway, it's striking that the worst of the crisis is hitting states that largely didn't experience a housing bubble.


  

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Nocera (NYT): "How India Avoided a Crisis"

Nocera is almost always worth reading, and now he's writing from Mumbai. My father-in-law pointed this one out--yesterday's column: on how India largely avoided the subprime/credit crisis.


How India Avoided a Crisis

In India, banks usually don't lend money to people who lack the means to pay it back. Any lessons to be learned, class?

December 20, 2008


Some of the factors Nocera describes are cultural, but the bulk of the essay (the 2nd more substantive half) is all about India's central bank/er:

"India had a bank regulator who was the anti-Greenspan. His name was Dr. V. Y. Reddy, and he was the governor of the Reserve Bank of India...in the irascible Mr. Reddy, who took office in 2003 and stepped down this past September, it had exactly the right man in the right job at the right time."

and at the end:

"Our regulators, unlike theirs, just stood by and let it happen. The next time we're moving into bubble territory, perhaps we can take a page from Mr. Reddy's book — sometimes it's better to apply the brakes too early than too late. Or, as was the case with Mr. Greenspan, not at all.



None of this is to say that the global credit crisis hasn't affected India. It certainly has. I'll be back after the holidays with more columns from India, including how Sept. 15 — the day Lehman Brothers defaulted — changed everything, even here, on the other side of the world."

Certainly looking forward to that..

Saturday, December 20, 2008

NYT: "Wonderful? Sorry, George, It’s a Pitiful, Dreadful Life"


Something to read if you're going to be doing a holiday season viewing of "It's a Wonderful Life", or if you just happen to come across it while flipping channels..

Wonderful? Sorry, George, It's a Pitiful, Dreadful Life
By WENDELL JAMIESONPublished: December 18, 2008
"It's a Wonderful Life" is a terrifying, asphyxiating story about growing up and relinquishing your dreams. Was this what adulthood promised?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/movies/19wond.html

I started reading it as I was going thru this week's pile of newspapers: it's featured prominently on the front page of yesterday's Weekend Arts section, taking up the entirety of page C1 above the fold. That's an impression you don't get via the online version; OTOH, you get the info that people are reading it, and feeling it: it's currently #3 on the most e-mailed list for all of nytimes.com

If you're in NYC, the article notes that IFC in the Village (on 6th Ave, right next to the 4th St subway stop) shows it annually, so you can see it on the big screen. It's there thru Xmas Day:
http://www.ifccenter.com/film?filmid=3836

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Cell phones/text messaging for development

I'm looking at some links/info on this topic b/c a friend is involved with an organization called the Flip Flop Foundation, and is interested in if/how they can use cell phones in Zambia as part of their mission:
http://www.flipflopfoundation.com/

I remembered seeing this article in the NYT earlier this year, about how a Reuters employee named  saw an application for mobile phones and text msg'ing in providing market data to rural farmers in India; Reuters is currently testing the program, called "Reuters Market Light":



A Google search led to a number of news piece about how text msgs are being used in S Africa in a public health context.  This 2003 BBC piece describes how individuals who suffer from TB and/or HIV are reminded to take their medication:

"Text messages prove a life-saver"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/2698533.stm


A related initiative in S Africa is using the extra space left in "PCM" ("Please call me") text msg's to ask people to get tested and treated for HIV; both these articles from the past few months describe this "Project M" (M is Masiluleke, which apparently means "wise council" in Zulu):

"Texts used to tackle South Africa HIV crisis"
http://www.cnn.com/2008/HEALTH/12/01/hiv.text.messages/index.html

"The Transformative 120: Text Messages Prove a South African HIV Lifeline"
http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/009090.html


Here is the link to the Project M's homepage:
http://www.poptech.org/project_m_the_challenge/


Google also led me to this interview with a guy named Ken Banks, who has been working on applying mobile technologies to development--in particular in Africa--for a number of years:

"Cell phones, text-messaging revolutionalize conservation approaches: An interview with IT conservation expert Ken Banks"
http://news.mongabay.com/2007/0415-banks_interview.html

That page in turn led me to the website for Kiwanja.net, which Banks founded:
http://www.kiwanja.net


Finally, to bring this back around, both Banks and the Reuters employee who developed Reuters Market Light did so through the Reuters Digital Vision Program at Stanford:
http://www.rdvp.org/
http://rdvp.org/archives/2006/08/18/mans-olof-ors-05-and-project-market-light-in-timesonline/
http://rdvp.org/fellows/2006-2007/ken-banks/

Monday, December 08, 2008

"The Day John Lennon Died"

I am loving Google Reader.  Just added subscriptions for two NYT blogs: City Room and Freakonomics (http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/ & http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/

Which led me to spot the City Room roundup included below (which I e-mailed to myself from within Google Reader, and then forwarded to the blog here..click on the title below (or above) to get to the CityRoom post)..

Which made me realize that John Lennon was shot 28 years ago today, here in NYC.  Which led me to the Wikipedia entry, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_death_of_John_Lennon, which says that Lennon was shot in the entrance to the Dakota, which is on 72nd St @ Central Park West.  The Wikipedia entry has two photos of the building..as well as the police artist's drawing of the murder.

Which in turn led me to Google Maps, to try to figure out how I could share the exact location of the Dakota.  I discovered one can create a map and share it..this could be another time sink for me:

Anj and I were in that neighborhood just over a week ago.  On the Sunday morning following Thanksgiving, we took the D to Columbus Circle and walked up CPW to 71st St, in order to visit http://www.vedanta-newyork.org/index.htm, which I think we'll be revisiting periodically on Sunday mornings..

PS: you can use the link below to "Get Started using Google Reader"--which I strongly recommend if you read blogs at all..

 
 

Sent to you by Suman via Google Reader:

 
 

via City Room by By Emily S. Rueb on 12/8/08
Blogtalk: An anniversary; Obama and Caroline; Saigon Grill's popularity; slumming Bill Murray; and more New York links.

 
 

Things you can do from here:

 
 

Sunday, December 07, 2008

DiMaggio from NorCal

Following up on an exchange that came up at brunch w Arun, that arose out of the SF Seals T-shirt I'm wearing today, I claimed that the DiMaggio brothers came out of SF and came up playing for the Seals.

Turns out I was almost right; according to the current version of the Wikipedia entry (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_DiMaggio), Joltin' Joe
DiMaggio was born in Martinez, CA, which is in the SF Bay Area (specifically, "Martinez is located on the south side of the Carquinez Strait in the San Francisco Bay Area, directly facing the city of Benicia" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martinez,_California)

The first few paragraphs of the Wikipedia entry for Joe Dimaggio are included below:

DiMaggio was the eighth of nine children born to immigrants Giuseppe (1872–1949) and Rosalia (Mercurio) DiMaggio (1878–1951), delivered by a midwife identified on his birth certificate as Mrs. J. Pico. He was named after his father; "Paolo" was in honor of Giuseppe's favorite saint, Saint Paul. The family moved to San Francisco, California when Joe was one year old.

Giuseppe was a fisherman, as were generations of DiMaggios before him. Joe's brother, Tom, told Joe's biographer Maury Allen that Rosalia's father, also a fisherman, wrote to her that Giuseppe could earn a better living in California than in their native Isola delle Femmine, an islet off the coast of Sicily. After being processed on Ellis Island, he worked his way across the country, eventually settling near Rosalia's father in Pittsburgh, California. After four years, he was able to earn enough money to send for her and their daughter, whom was born after he had left for the United States.

It was Giuseppe's hope that his five sons would become fisherman. Joe recalled that he would do anything to get out of cleaning his father's boat, as the smell of dead fish made him nauseous. Giuseppe called him "lazy" and "good for nothing." told Giuseppe's opposition was due to not understanding how baseball could help Joe "get away from the poverty" and make something of himself.

Joe was playing semi-pro ball when Vince, playing for the San Francisco Seals, talked his manager into letting Joe fill in at shortstop; he made his professional debut on October 1, 1932. From May 27 – July 25, 1933, he got at least one hit in a PCL-record 61 consecutive games: "Baseball didn't really get into my blood until I knocked off that hitting streak. Getting a daily hit became more important to me than eating, drinking or sleeping."


Sent via BlackBerry from T-Mobile

Wednesday, December 03, 2008

Chase Manhattan Plaza - 40 Wall St

I haven't blogged a photo in a while..here is a shot of 40 Wall St from the backside, taken from Chase Manhattan Plaza: 40 Wall is the bldg on the right.

More on 40 Wall in the future..a whole chapter of Grant's "The Trouble With Prosperity" is centered around the history of this bldg.

Monday, December 01, 2008

My most popular-interesting Flickr bits


"This is a view of your 200 most popular bits, ordered by interestingness."
bob marley - haight @ central

#1: bob marley - haight @ central

•  702 views  /  3 people count this as a favorite  /  4 comments
We Deliver - 19 July '05

#2: We Deliver - 19 July '05

•  300 views  /  1 person counts this as a favorite  /  1 comment
Tookie

#3: Tookie

Taken by my friend Pete in LA, shortly after the execution.

•  301 views  /  1 person counts this as a favorite  /  1 comment
Mad Society Kings - 2

#4: Mad Society Kings - 2

•  195 views  /  3 people count this as a favorite  /  0 comments
haight @ central - 1

#5: haight @ central - 1

•  287 views  /  4 people count this as a favorite  /  4 comments
565 SVN - 19 July '05

#6: 565 SVN - 19 July '05

•  243 views  /  Nobody counts 565 SVN - 19 July '05 as a favorite  /  1 comment
18th @ SVN - straight up

#7: 18th @ SVN - straight up

•  253 views  /  Nobody counts 18th @ SVN - straight up as a favorite  /  0 comments
20th @ Bryant - 14 July '05

#8: 20th @ Bryant - 14 July '05

•  264 views  /  2 people count this as a favorite  /  1 comment
union HQ - 18th & Shotwell

#9: union HQ - 18th & Shotwell

•  231 views  /  Nobody counts union HQ - 18th & Shotwell as a favorite  /  1 comment
MSK - Duboce freeway

#10: MSK - Duboce freeway

•  352 views  /  1 person counts this as a favorite  /  0 comments

Google Reader + "Rubin's Teflon Finally Wears Off"


Two birds with one stone, so to speak:

(1) I set up Google Reader over the weekend. This is Google's "RSS reader." What does that mean? Practically speaking, it means it can collect posts from blogs all across the web into one place, allowing you to scan and read right there (namely, at http://www.google.com/reader) instead of at a bunch of different blog sites.

Google's is certainly not the only or first RSS reader. They've been around a number of years--I have an account at Rojo.com that I was using for a second (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rojo.com). Though just now I find that that url gets redirected to Blogs.com..I hadn't used it in a couple years.

(What is RSS? Read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSS_(file_format) ... basically every blog creates an "RSS feed" which RSS aggregators can read and pull in. In fact, not just blogs..from the wikipedia entry: "RSS is a family of Web feed formats used to publish frequently updated works—such as blog entries, news headlines, audio, and video"..hence newspapers, photo-sharing sites like Flickr, YouTube, etc--all of them have RSS feeds which you can pull into an RSS reader)

As a friend put it, Google's isn't necessarily the best RSS aggregator, but it is (or will be) the most widely used, for a couple reasons: it's Google, so if you've got a Google (gmail) account, you can start right away, just by hitting "Reader" at the top of any Google page. Plus it knows about your Gmail contacts, which leads to a powerful feature of Google Reader: it's easy to share any item (a blog post, a headline, etc) with any of your contacts.

For example, I e-mailed myself the following Portfolio.com blog post just now. It's from Felix Salmon's "Market Movers" blog--something I started reading about a year ago, but haven't been keeping up with over the past few months. Now that I've got Google Reader set up, I think I'll be able to keep up (other blog feeds I subscribed to: The Big Picture, Minyanville, Krugman's blog, Mankiw's blog, Brad Delong's blog..as you may be able to infer, mostly finance/econ so far.)

Probably it's not 100% kosher to republish Felix Salmon's blog post in its entirety, so I manually cut it off below after a few paragraphs. Click on the title links to go to his blog and read the rest of the post, if you're interested.

(2) I thought this post about Rubin was interesting, and wanted to post it anyways..

----- Forwarded Message ----
From: My gmail address
To: Me
Sent: Monday, December 1, 2008 1:42:16 AM
Subject: Rubin's Teflon Finally Wears Off



Sent to you by Me via Google Reader:

via Portfolio.com: Market Movers by Felix Salmon on 11/29/08

In one of the most ill-advised pieces of PR I can remember, Bob Rubin has given an on-the-record interview to the WSJ, in which he takes no blame or responsibility for anything which has gone wrong at Citigroup. The reaction in the blogosphere has been, predictably, swift and brutal, helped along by the fact that Rubin's famous charm clearly hasn't worked on his interviewers, Ken Brown and David Enrich. Here's their lede:

Under fire for his role in the near-collapse of Citigroup Inc., Robert Rubin said its problems were due to the buckling financial system, not its own mistakes, and that his role was peripheral to the bank's main operations even though he was one of its highest-paid officials.

It just gets worse from there: by refusing to admit to any mistakes at all, Rubin has garnered himself zero sympathy. Rubin has been surprisingly bulletproof until now: while he's had many critics, his reputation has largely remained intact. But with this interview, it's disappeared at a stroke: no one can read it and think of him as anything other than a pompous and out-of-touch plutocrat, puffed up with much more self-regard than common sense.

For instance, he's quick to the not-my-bailiwick defense:

Mr. Rubin said it is a company's risk-management executives who are responsible for avoiding problems like the ones Citigroup faces. "The board can't run the risk book of a company," he said. "The board as a whole is not going to have a granular knowledge" of operations.

But board members don't get paid $115 million. If he wasn't playing a central role when it came to Citi's risk book, what was he doing for the money? It's not clear, but his comments don't help much:

Mr. Rubin said his pay was justified and that there were higher-paying opportunities available to him. "I bet there's not a single year where I couldn't have gone somewhere else and made more," he said.

Justified? What does that possibly mean? And as for making more money elsewhere, I suspect that many Citigroup shareholders wish that he'd done precisely that. But not only was Rubin incredibly well-paid, he also had to all intents and purposes tenure at Citigroup: as a member of the board, he was an employer of the CEO rather than an employee, so there was really no one who could fire him.

The most astonishing instance of Rubin failing to justify his salary, however, comes later:

Mr. Rubin was deeply involved in a decision in late 2004 and early 2005 to take on more risk to boost flagging profit growth, according to people familiar with the discussions. They say he would comment that Citigroup's competitors were taking more risks, leading to higher profits. Colleagues deferred to him, as the only board member with experience as a trader or risk manager...
At the time, Mr. Rubin was saying in speeches that most assets were overvalued. He would quote a noted investor he knew as saying that "the only undervalued asset class in the world is risk."
But it wouldn't have been right for the board to act on his concerns, Mr. Rubin said in the interview: "I wouldn't run a financial institution based on someone's view about what markets would do."

The cognitive disconnect here is simply staggering. Rubin's going around saying that institutions are taking on too much risk, but he's also telling the Citi board that it should take on even more risk. He had no problem with the board following his lead when he said he wanted Citi to take extra risks, but he says that he would have had a problem with the board listening to his concerns about doing so. For this he thinks his $115 million is justifiable?

[go to Market Movers for the rest]

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