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Friday, December 28, 2007

Grant's interest rate observer

I came across a reference to the financial writer James
Grant in some article I was reading
a few weeks ago..searched around, and came to the web site of a
newsletter he publishes:

http://www.grantspub.com


It's for subscribers only, and I can see why..but there are a few
samples available for d/l:

http://www.grantspub.com/issues/samples.php


Take a look..I just read the "Inside Ace Securities' Hel Trust, Series
2005-HE5" article last week. It's really worth reading--it talks about
subprime-backed CDOs in general, starting from basics, and then
dissects a one particular CDO, going through it with a guy who shorted it. And
all this was published back in Sept..2006!

I just noticed he's got this up on the website too.."what Grant's had
to say on three burning issues in credit, before the match was lit"

http://www.grantspub.com/extra/BurningCredit.pdf


print those out and read them sometime..

I was reminded of all this tonight b/c I just saw that he
had an op-ed in the NYT a couple weeks ago. they had a whole page
devoted to the question of whether we're already in a recession..Grant's
answer was 'nobody knows', but his main point is a bust is necessary
after a boom, in particular in credit..and that we haven't gotten to the
bust yet:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/16/opinion/16grant.html

actually that seems to be his main interest, booms and busts. after I
came across his newsletter, I went on amazon and ordered on his books:
"The Trouble With Prosperity: A Contrarian's Tale of Boom, Bust, and
Speculation"

http://www.amazon.com/Trouble-Prosperity-Contrarians-Tale-Speculation/dp/0812929918/ref=pd_sim_b_title_5



I'll have to get around to reading it sooner or later..another on the
reading list/pile. he's got another one too, titled "Money of the Mind:
Borrowing and Lending in America from the Civil War to Michael Milken." he's also got a biography of Bernard Baruch, which them reminded me of
Niall Ferguson, , b/c
he's got a 2-volume history of the Rothschilds..but I'll save the
Ferguson links for a future post. that would just be a few more to add the
to list/pile.